UK Study: Majority of Jews to Be Ultra-Orthodox By 2050 July 23, 2007

The University of Manchester (UK) released today it’s findings on World Jewry.

Basically, the future face of world Jewry — or at least European and American Jewish populations — will have a beard and a head-covering.

The Charedi Orthodox Jewish population is increasing far faster than its secular counterpart, and by 2050, the majority of the European and American Jews could be charedi:

Ultra-orthodox British and American Jews are set to outnumber their more secular counterparts by the second half of this century according to research by a University of Manchester academic.Historian Dr Yaakov Wise says the increase in religious British Jewry - recognisable by their traditional dress - is now outstripping the decline in the overall Jewish population which has been shrinking by one to two per cent each year since the 1950s.

European ultra-orthodox Jewry is expanding more rapidly than at any time since before World War Two. Almost three out of every four British Jewish births, he says are ultra- orthodox who now account for 45,500 out of a total UK Jewish population of around 275,000 or 17 per cent.

According to Dr Wise and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem’s Professor Sergio Della Pergola, Israel is experiencing similar changes. Dr Wise said: “If current trends continue there is going to be a profound cultural and political change among British and American Jews - and it’s already well on the way.”…

“Approximately half of all the Jewish under fives in Greater Manchester are Ultra-orthodox. And in Greater London the Ultra-orthodox now account for 18 per cent of the Jewish population, up from less than 10 per cent in the early 1990s.”

He added: “My work and that of Professor Sergio Della Pergola reveal a similar picture in Israel. By the year 2020, the Ultra-orthodox population of Israel will double to one million and make up 17 per cent of the total population.”

“A recent Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics report also found that a third of all Jewish pupils will be studying at haredi schools by 2012, prompting emergency meetings at the Education Ministry.”

In America too, where the Jewish population is stable or declining, Ultra-Orthodox Jewish numbers are growing rapidly. Professor Joshua Comenetz from The University of Florida says the Ultra-orthodox population doubles every 20 years, which he says may make the Jewish community not only more religiously observant but more politically conservative.

(Emergency meetings? Please.)OK, first of all, I pray that G-d allows me to have a hand in separating those two distinct terms: “religiously observant” and “politically conservative” are, especially in America, not the same thing, and may even be diametrically opposed. The current Right Wing regime in America violates Scriptural tenets routinely. And fellow Jewschool blogger Josh Frankel turned me on to the fact that Torah Law written before Roe v. Wade was often unflinchingly pro-choice, whereas after Roe v. Wade, “moral majority”-type language began to push its way into halachic responsa. (His findings are noted in a to-be-released research paper.)

But this, I feel, is going to underscore the fact that — if by virtue of no other reason than sheer numbers — the haredi population is becoming much more diverse and much less monolithic. “Ultra-Orthodoxy” will look very different in 2050. By 2050, I will surely not be the only charedi Orthodox hiphopper — perhaps we will see Jewish hiphop charts routinely posted in Jewish bookstores. Matisyahu will certainly be old hat.

By 2050, perhaps all yeshivos will be online and have broadband access. Perhaps ShalomTV will expand into a number of networks and we will have Torah-friendly TV programming available in all observant homes.

And G-d willing, Moshiach will have long since come.

Perhaps by 2050 we will even have a new category: “mega-Orthodox”, to distinguish from the progressive ultra-Orthodox people beginning to get more of a voice. Perhaps the ultra-reactionary elements will split off and form more groups determined to make their world into a perfect replica of 1650 (instead of the current status quo of 1850).

But regardless, with expansion inevitably comes change, and I think as these “under 5s” grow up, their world will change rapidly with them. And they’re going to view all of it through the lens of Torah.

Ken yirbu.