On Second Thought, Maybe This Is Israel’s Biggest Problem December 10, 2006

Lately Israel’s been relatively quiet on the Katyusha front, with most of the projectiles being launched towards it being Qassams from Gaza or West Bank. What’s been keeping Nasrallah busy this whole time?

From The Houston Chronicle:

Lebanon president rejects call for international tribunal

By ZEINA KARAM
Associated Press

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Lebanon’s pro-Syrian president refused today to endorse a draft accord sent to him by the Cabinet for creating an international tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of a former premier. President Emile Lahoud said the Cabinet of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and his anti-Syria allies had lost its constitutional legitimacy.

The president’s action was certain to intensify political and sectarian tensions that have worsened since mass protests over the 2005 slaying of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri forced Syria to end a nearly three-decade military occupation of Lebanon.

The Syrian-backed Hezbollah guerrilla group and its allies were in the ninth day of street protests launched after talks with Saniora’s government failed to produce a national unity government. The groups called for a huge demonstration Sunday, saying it would mark an escalation in their attempt to oust the U.S.-backed government.

Uh huh. Lebanese PM Siniora threatened Hezbollah of planning a coup. Nasrallah is hugely popular in the Shi’a sections of Beirut, and this inflames sectarian tension between Sunni and Shi’a residents.

Iran feels stronger than ever in the new, destabilized Middle East, and considering Nasrallah is “Iran’s Lebanese ally”, this means that a Hezbollah-run Lebanon would feel stronger than ever, too. So it’s Iran, Syria and Hezbollah together.

This is a quite plausible outcome — if there is full scale civil war or a coup in Lebanon.

That would be a much more acute problem than anything the Iraq Study Group put together.